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ASEAN-6 means the six largest economies in Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Viet Nam.
The global economic advisory firm forecast that Viet Nam's economic growth in 2025 will be 6.5 percent year on year, led by manufacturing, with contributions from machinery and textiles.
Manufacturing fundamentals remain strong. Viet Nam is a hub for assembly, packaging, and testing for semiconductor chips, and the chip-led tailwind will continue next year, though the boost will be weaker than in 2024. The Oxford Economics expect some softness in the near-term.
The domestic sector outlook remains bright. Solid wage growth, driven by FDI job creation, should support private consumption. With the number of operating enterprises still growing in annual terms, asset accumulation will likely be stronger in 2025, though FDI inflows may see a temporary slowdown in early 2025 while awaiting possible US tariff announcements on Viet Nam.
Credit growth should be better in 2025. Recent changes to credit controls and a better domestic business.
Oxford Economics' projection is similar to that of other international financial institutions. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) previously raised its forecast for Viet Nam to 6.4 percent this year and 6.6 percent in 2025.
HSBC also believed that Viet Nam's GDP growth could reach 7 percent in 2024 and 6.5 percent in 2025, the highest in ASEAN-6. Standard Chartered forecast that Viet Nam will grow strongly at 6.7 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, UOB predicted that Viet Nam's growth rate in 2025 will be 6.6 percent, the highest in ASEAN-6./.
